/k/ — Flamingo interception rates

>>65227821 (OP)
the whole point of taking out air defenses is to create gaps that can be exploited so ukie drones and missiles aren't flying through hundreds of miles of AD

the target sites/cities should have AA, so no idea what they're doing. but we probably aren't seeing every missile/drone the russians shoot down

>>65227835
> the target sites/cities should have AA, so no idea what they're doing. but we probably aren't seeing every missile/drone the russians shoot down
Russia deliberately chosen approach not to place AA at the targets because there is only so much AA. Ukraine would just hit other targets.

I think they're just shuffling shit around.

Ukrainians intercepted cruise missiles with MANPADS, so it can't be that hard.

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>>65227821 (OP)

Why are they flying missiles in broad daylight, when night vision and thermal imaging are available for final guidance?

>>65227892
1: Thermal works just fine during daytime as well
2: Vatnigger AD is just THAT bad

>>65227892
to kill workers at the factory they were targeting.

>How hard is it to shoot these things down?
It's pretty easy to shoot down. AFAIK the recent strike on Cheboksary included 5 missiles, 3 got shot down on various stages of the route and 2 hit the target.

>>65227892

hitting a factory with employees inside and production equipment on is way, way more effective than hitting it when it's empty and all of the large inductors are de-energized

>>65227892
Doing noisy stuff during night time would be rude and wake up people that are sleeping.

>>65227821 (OP)
hmm, according to google, a flamingo is slightly faster than a tomahawk (cruising speed). I don't hear about tomahawks being shot down with manpads on any regular basis.

>>65227835
>the target sites/cities should have AA, so no idea what they're doing.
Sending them all to Moscow and Putin's estate because it's a massive political loss every time a random drone gets lucky and doesn't get shot down there. Any other city they can just pretend it never happened.

>>65227944
60% interception rate against a subsonic, non-stealthy, and not particularly low altitude target flying across 1000 km of your own territory isn't a particularly good rate. Either the Ukrainians fired more or Russian AD is a leaky sieve

The hard part is in detection and coordination of air defences, Ukraine has a national system co-developed with the west where the operation center gets an air view of the entire country and every single inbound munition, the view is then shared to dispersed air defence units around the country in real-time, so a Stinger team gets the call to be on the lookout, shoots down one, then the rest get tasked to the following AD units and so forth, while the air force is tasked to engage others and such.

In Russia, this coordination takes place over cellphones, military radios and landline.Their high-capability systems like S-300 have no problem shooting down cruise missiles, but they cannot coordinate their defence with low-capability systems like Igla or ZU-23 teams effectively, so Russians get AD bubbles at their AD sites, then the attack targets may have point defence, but any en-route defences kinda suck.

>>65228936
MANPADS have very short ranges, you have to be at the right place at the right time to get a lock and fire, and cruise missiles don't have huge signatures. The probability of a MANPADS crew being able to spot let alone intercept a cruise missile is pretty low. Ukraine gets away with it because their territory isn't huge and they have a sophisticated early warning and AD control system, and even then downing a cruise missile with a MANPADS is something they celebrate. This is more of a MRAD and SHORAD level thing.

>>65228973
>Their high-capability systems like S-300 have no problem shooting down cruise missiles
radar horizon is a big issue for systems like S-300. Even with the radars on masts, the effective range of a S-300 battery against even these not-super-low altitude cruise missiles isn't great, at least compared to the size of Russia. The main defense is dispersed MRAD and SHORAD systems like TOR and Pantsir rather than S-300. Agreed that they have poor coordination and en-route defenses though. I think aside from the poor coordination that's mainly down to the absolute beating that their AD closer to the frontlines took, opening holes in the defenses, combined with the size of Russia.

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>>65228973
The hard part is having AD coverage when you are the largest country in the world and your enemies aren't focusing a single city for the fouth year.

ukrainian osint says >90% of flamingos got shot down or otherwise missed